Introducing YWR Intelligence!!

Our goal is always to make you a better investor.

To make you more money.

First we brought you independent, contrarian investments ideas like the Dirty Dividends and the Cash Dragons.

Then we added YWR Models to show the fundamental modelling behind the views.

Then we built our global perspective with quantitative ranking scores like The Global Factor Model and QARV.

Then we improved our market perspective with the Hedge Fund Holdings data and PEVC Deal Trackers.

Then we added Killer Charts.

Now we are bringing something new and revolutionary to your toolkit.

Something so revolutionary, it might disrupt fund management itself.

AI driven investment reports.

YWR Intelligence @ www.ywr-intelligence.world

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We always said this could happen.

You type a ticker.

Which sends out your AI agents to write a 4 page investment memo on a stock, based on real financial data.

You tell the AI Agents to:

• Analyse the valuations.

• Do a comparison analysis.

• Analyze the latest transcript.

• Tell me the bull case with something the market might be missing.

• Tell me the bear case.

• Tell me if management are BS’ers.

• Be global.

• Give me a view.

• Do it in under 3 minutes.

• Do 5 stocks at a time (if I want).

• Make it short and sweet (because I’m ADD).

Boom!

Check out the report I ran today on Tencent.

Guys…. this is insane.

And this is v1. It’s only going to get better.

Try it out.

I’m excited.

But here are some common sense Disclosures:

• This is a research tool NOT a brokerage recommendation.

• You still need to use your brain and common sense.

• You still need your professional financial advisor.

• Use this report as part of a mosaic of inputs.

• Expect the AI will get some things wrong, or partially hallucinate, even though we tried to eliminate this as much as possible.

• Use the report as a snapshot to tell you if you something looks interesting, and worthy of more work. Or, use it as an input into a bigger process (Containerisation of Thought).

• Investing in stocks is risky and lots of things you do will lose money, whether you use AI research or not.

• Take the Price Target with a huge pinch of salt!! It’s a rough guideline that is most helpful in certain situations. I’ll explain more below.

Explaining the Price to Sales Price Target (UNH Example)

The idea behind the Price to Sales Price Target at the top of the report is to give you a 2 year potential upside on a stock.

It’s not perfect. It’s just a tool. Ignore it if you want.

In v2 this price target section might be further down in the report, because really it works best when a stock has sold off and earnings are a mess with losses and exceptional impairments. At times like these the EPS is erratic and unpredictable, and P/E ratios don’t work very well. This is when it’s better to use a long-term Price to Sales measure.

Take United HealthGroup (UNH) as an example.

The model takes the consensus estimated 2028 sales of $545 billion. If there is no consensus sales estimate the default growth rate is 10%.

Then the model factors in any share buybacks to estimate the Sales/share in 2028 (because the share count is declining). This works out to roughly $587/share. Note the model is assuming an annual rate for share buybacks, but this can always change if management accelerates it or stops the buyback.

See what I mean about taking this with a pinch of salt?

Next the model looks back over the last 7 years to calculate the 30th percentile of the Price to Sales ratio. This is meant to be a conservative ratio. In oversold situations like UNH it assumes some partial recovery to the mean.

Historical Price/Sales Ratio for UNH

The 30th percentile for UNH over the last 7 years is 1.17x.

Note: 30th percentile means the percentile below which 30% of the P/Sales observations lie. On the UNH chart 1.17x, looks high compared to the current price to sales of 0.64, but remember it has only traded there for 3 months, so most of the monthly observations are above 1.17.

There is also likely to be some confusion around the mean price to sales number (0.95x for UNH). The mean is the mean for all the available price/sales history. In this case 2025 to 2006. The 30th percentile calculation just uses the last 7 years. We do this to be more reflective of recent valuation ranges.

Then the model puts it all together.

Sales/share in 2028 (roughly $587/share)

Conservative P/Sales (1.2x)

Price Target: $705/share

You see all the assumptions being made and why I say to use the Price Target with a large grain of salt.

This model how we have it right now has little value when a company is doing well and trading above average valuations. In these scenarios the price target will show lots of downside, which might not be the case.

This model also struggles with banks, where it should be using net revenues (interest income - interest expense). Banks don’t work well for P/sales ratios.

In the end there is no one size fits all for investing, or price targets, or AI investment reports, even though we try our best.

Try it out

So next time you have a new investment idea, or a theme, and want the quick and dirty in 3 minutes go to www.ywr-intelligence.world

Try it out then email me your thoughts, tweaks, and what you’d like to see next (erik@ywr.world).

This is just v1.

Erik