Is the market a bubble and what pops it?
That’s what everyone wants to know.
Will it be private credit loans? Like a GFC 2.0?
Will it be when AI revenues disappoint?
Or, will it be the collapse of the US consumer?
Nope.
This bull market will end like the previous two in 1999 and 2008.
The bull market ends when energy joins the party and the Fed has to raise interest rates to fight inflation.
The bull market doesn’t end when the Fed is cutting interest rates, global GDP growth is 3%, inflation is under control, and energy is cheap.
Oil is historically cheap, especially inflation adjusted.
Blow out of gold-oil ratio.
EV momentum is stalling
India is having their China 2004 moment.
Oil supply could be the real black swan nobody is talking about
That’s the view I presented this week in Hong Kong.
Below is a link to the presentation.