YWR 2026 Asset Allocation
Turns out YWR readers are the savviest investors in the world.
The 2026 Asset Allocation Survey results are in.
And I had wanted to fade it. Like I do everything.
But I can’t.
A full summary PDF with all the data, charts and market surprise responses is at the bottom of the post.
The Questions
It was a quick survey.
What’s your name, individual/professional and where are you based? This was all optional, but just good to know a few rough characteristics of the survey population.
Pick 3 ETF’s for 2026.
Write out 2 surprises for 2026.
Of the 137 responses 66% were individual investors.
With a good geographic spread. Not all US investors.
So what were their picks?
Top 10 ETF’s
I provided a list of 32 popular ETF’s representing the main asset classes and themes. There was also ‘Other’ where you could enter a custom ETF. But I wanted people to pick from the broad asset classes so we could get a sense of consensus.
I’m kind of shocked at the results.
I guess in hindsight I shouldn’t be though. These are mostly YWR readers so the results naturally skew to the themes we talk about each week, but still.
Energy has been terrible. Everyone hates it, oil is crashing, and yet… XLE was the top pick for 2026. The VanEck Oil Services ETF was #5. OIH was also popular. That makes energy the top theme for 2026. I love it.
The second biggest theme was gold miners (GDX) and gold (GLD). I agree, I just hope the move isn’t over before 2026 (The race to $5,000 gold).
Brazil…the outlook for Brazil’s 2026 election is highly uncertain and yet EWZ is the #3 pick in the survey.
China had a good year, with FXI +27%, but it’s still the 4th most popular pick for 2026. YWR Readers must agree that China has a lot more to go (Why it’s a China Bull Market with Louis Gave).
IBIT, the iShares Bitcoin ETF, was the 5th most popular theme.
Then Biotech was surprisingly popular with XBI getting 12 votes.
The ETF’s Nobody Loved
So what did absolutely nobody vote for. What got zero votes?
US Real Estate - SPDR Real Estate Sector ETF (XLRE)
US Defence - iShares US Aerospace and Defence (ITA)
US Real Estate…. maybe it’s a tempting contrarian asset class, but I’m still not interested.
I’m surprised nobody voted for the US Defence ETF when the Ukraine was is still grinding along and Trump has announced the US will spend up to half a trillion dollars on Golden Dome. ‘Golden Dome’ sounds great like the best thing ever if you are Raytheon or Lockheed Martin. A never ending defence boondoggle. Our Star Wars.
Junk Bonds (JNK) only got 1 vote. Bonds in general (JNK, LQD, TLT) were not popular. I guess yields have to be a lot higher to pull investors away from the equity party.
Interesting that a contrarian call on energy was the top pick, and yet Saudi Arabia (KSA) only got 1 vote. I guess YWR readers wanted the pure play.
Renewables - iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) got 2 votes. Renewables remain a totally hated sector despite Chinese solar stocks like DQ starting to work and a view that energy costs could surprise in 2026.
Despite the S&P 500 up 3 years in a row the Direxion S&P 500 1x Bear Shares (SPDN) only got 3 votes.
The lack of interest in bonds, the lack of interest in shorting the S&P 500, and the popularity of going long energy, gold, China, Brazil and Bitcoin is all an inflationary, weak dollar outlook. Strong dollar, falling yields and falling equity markets would be the big contrarian trade.
I know we don’t talk about it much, but India got surprisingly little love. Just 4 votes for INDA.
Europe has been doing well, and the EUR has been strong too, but nobody cares. European Financials (EUFN) got 4 votes and Europe (IEV) got 5 votes.
South Korea has been on an absolute tear, and we love South Korea, but it only got 5 votes. I will have to do something about that.
Top 10 Surprises
It’s mind opening to read through all the surprises people came up with. There were 242 entries in total (Surprise #1 and #2). I put them all in the full survey results and at the bottom of the post. Here were 10 good ones.
Fed re-pivots and signals rate increases after the second half as inflation surprises on the upside.
US Market keeps on climbing despite all the bubble talk
A fusion start-up comes out of stealth mode in 2026, announcing commercial viability of fusion power for 2028. All energy stocks tank 80%.
AI beneficiary super cycle truly begins with higher GDP, earnings growth, inflation, rates, and M&A. 2025 was, in hindsight, an excellent entry point.
TSLA $1,000 a share
Blockchain based agents display 100% reliability vs LLM tendency to hallucinate thus sparking a bull market in crypto alts.
Trump loses mid-terms resoundingly. Long-term rates plummet.
Trump-Xi JinPing-Putin summit creating a new G3
AI is an epic flop and all the air comes out of the bubble. Spz 4500??
Geopolitical flash points with hot drone wars in Poland and Venezuela, inspiring other conflicts and a global recession with financial losses not seen in the generation since GFC.
So what do we do with this data?
How do we build a portfolio for 2026?
2026 Asset Allocation
I decided to make this your portfolio. It reflects the wisdom of the YWR Crowd. Let’s see how we do.
We are allocating 20% each to XLE, GDX, FXI and EWZ. I’m not wild about 20% in EWZ, but it was a top theme so we’ll go with it.
I did make one tactical override. I added a 20% allocation to South Korea. We are in a memory bull market and Samsung (23% weight) and SK Hynix (17% weight) could double again next year. If it doesn’t work it’s my fault.
Below is a PDF with the full YWR 2026 Asset Allocation Survey results. It has all the charts, data and reader surprises so you can send it around.