YWR: $3.5trn Programmatic Poop Funnel
We were planning to cover the asset classes which won’t do well under Trump (Part 2), but we’ll cover that another time. First, we have more work to do setting the table.
Have you ever wondered why the sales growth at Google and Facebook periodically stalls out, seeming to go ex-growth, only to recover again a few quarters later. A recovery, but with a gradual trend downward in growth rates? It has happened twice recently. 2019-2020 and again in 2022.
Is it just the economy causing these wobbles and recoveries or is something else going on?
What is the growth outlook for the $700bn in annual online advertising spend?
$700 billion/year is a lot of money on annoying ads.
But does online advertising actually work?
Is there a positive ROI?
When it’s all said and done does the net profit from new sales exceed the cost of all the online advertising $ you spent to get the sales?
I know it’s hard to measure, but is anyone even asking the question?
It’s important to know because $3.5trn of high growth market cap is based on the growth of online advertising. Google and Facebook have been big drivers of EPS growth for the index.
Let’s go down the rabbit hole.
Ben Gomes, the DOJ Emails, and the Death of Google Search
Graphical history of Google Ad Labelling
What if the Emperor isn’t wearing any clothes?
The Programmatic Poop Funnel
Why 1-1 Advertising doesn’t work
Collective Insanity