YWR: Big Ideas 2024
Get a coffee. Maybe two.
Cathy Wood’s Big Ideas 2024 is out. It’s time to sit down and get disruptive.
Big Ideas 2024 is 162 slides, and we can’t cover it all, so I’ve provided the full presentation at the bottom of the post.
But let’s go through a few key slides.
In Kathy’s view we have 5 major disruptive technologies converging at once and it will accelerate growth beyond what we are expecting and change the nature of the stock market.
This level of innovation has historic and has never happened before. GDP could average 7% growth (not 3%) and could add an extra $200 trillion in market capitalisation by 2030 (just 6 years away).
Disruption on Growth and the Market
We talk about the dominance of tech because it is 20% of the market. By 2030 it could be 60%.
Blockchains become a major new asset class.
AI as the center of everything
The central hub of this innovation is AI. It drives new products, and rising efficiencies.
Companies are just beginning to figure out how to fully implement AI into their business. The applications will continue to evolve.
AI is increasing worker productivity.
Improvements in text to graphics capability. Where does this go next? Text to video?
Full AI intelligence by 2027-2028?
2028 is basically now.
Even though it feels weird all businesses need to have serious meetings where the agenda is:
‘How could our products, processes and competition change if there was fully intelligent AI? What should we be doing now, now?’
Institutionalisation of Digital Assets
The steady institutionalisation of digital assets continues, but is still early. Institutions haven’t even started to move.
Bitcoin ETF’s have launched in the US, and have existed for years in Europe. Meanwhile, the CME has become the biggest Bitcoin exchange.
The question of whether Bitcoin is an accepted/institutional financial asset is over. Wall Street, the SEC and CFTC are all onboard.
Whenever you do a multi-asset analysis of the ideal Markowitz portfolio optimising for return and variance, it always ends up with lots of gold and Bitcoin, and yet institutions don’t own either. Weird.
Blockchains are a superior way to settle assets and we are seeing a steady migration of traditional assets on chain. It started with US$ deposits (stable coins) and is moving to US Treasuries.
The future of autonomous driving, smart contracts, how digital wallets change the payment system, virtual reality, how AI improves Single-cell RNA sequencing, multiomic tools, etc.
It’s too much to handle in one post, but so important.
Block out an 1 hour in your calendar, and go through the full presentation below.
It will be the most high value thing you do today…