YWR: Global Factor Model

I know it’s been a hectic week.

But let’s stick to our monthly discipline and review the global estimate trends. It’s good to know.

I think you’ll find they are better than you expect.

As a reminder the Global Factor Model is where we rank over 10,000 stocks on earnings estimate revisions, valuations and price momentum.

We are searching the world for the best combination of positive earnings revisions and attractive valuations.

At the bottom of the post are links to:

• The October Factor Model Sheet with rankings on over 10,000 global stocks.

• The YWR Factor Model Data App with rankings and earnings revision charts.

YWR Global Top 30

The Two Big Trends

There are two major trends in the market right now.

One trend you debate and talk about all the time.

Then another trend.

A trend you don’t like, don’t want to talk about, and don’t own.

The trend we debate all the time is AI, Semiconductors and the related supply chain. Estimate revisions for companies in the semiconductor supply chain are some of the strongest in the world. Many of these are based in Taiwan and Japan. These are Restar, Lenovo, Micron, Winbond Electronics, Nanya Tech, Asustek, Penguin Solutions and United Microelectronics.

Micron and Lenovo Earnings Estimates

The second major estimate trend; the one we don’t want to talk about is everything related to the Energy Crisis. It’s shipping, refiners, and integrated oil. This is a difficult theme because no one has a view on where the Iran War is going (Hormuz 2030).

Estimates for these companies all have an interesting feature. Estimates are rising with strong earnings for 2026, but then lower in 2027 because the war will be over and oil prices, refining margins and shipping rates will fall back to ‘normal’ levels. Right?

Earnings estimate revisions for PBF, Repsol and TORM

Top 5 Ranked Sectors

The top 5 best ranked sectors in the world are Shipping, Refining, Semiconductors, Integrated Oil and Pharmaceuticals. On Pharmaceuticals most of these are Chinese stocks. The best ranked pharmaceutical company listed in the US is Regeneron.

Cleveland Cliffs

Have you seen US steel prices? They are over $1,400/ton.

It’s a mix of things. Strong demand for steel in the US, tariffs on imported steel and lately the high cost of shipping steel to the US.

But it’s good if you happen to own steel plants in the US and have been accumulating them for years, like Cleveland Cliffs.

HRC, CLF_EPS estimates and Price Chart

Earnings estimates for CLF are rising and the stock price hasn't moved much, which is an interesting set up.

If you are wondering what CLF could earn next year after their contracts reprice closer to spot prices, the company spells it out for you. It’s about $2.7 billion in estimated free cash flow, which puts CLF (Market Cap $8.1bn) on 3x 2027 estimated cash flow.

But my guess is refiners, shipping, energy and steel aren’t what you are focused on.

Everyone is scrutinising the latest earnings for big cap US tech.

US Big Cap Estimate Revision Review

We can go round and round on AI and whether OpenAI and Anthropic will make money, etc, etc, but so far earnings trends for the largest companies in the world are positive. Maybe a little weakness in Meta, but otherwise forward estimates are trending upwards for the large stocks.

US Large Cap Earnings Estimate

Over 60% of companies have reported Q3 results and estimates for the S&P 500 as a whole are trending upwards.

Below are links to the rankings sheet so you can screen through all the stocks.

There is also the data app, which I like a lot because a quick click on any stock shows the earnings estimates for FY1, FY2 and FY3.