YWR: Your Weekend Reading

YWR: Your Weekend Reading

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YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR Global Factor Model
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YWR Global Factor Model

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Erik
Oct 31, 2023
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YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR Global Factor Model
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Disclosure: These are personal views and market commentary. These are not investment recommendations or advice. For that seek professional help.

It’s the end of the month and time to scan the YWR stock universe for interesting data insights that could lead to profitable investments.

The Top 20

There are still a lot of Turkish stocks in the top 20 list. Maybe you aren't wild about Turkey, but note what’s happening. Turkey is hyper inflating, so corporate earnings are exploding (upwards) and so are stock prices. If you are bearish on the US and inflation you should be bullish on the stock market.

Airlines have dropped out of the top 20. Still see Italian Banks, Japanese Utilities and Autos.

We’ll look at Boise Cascade below.

Industry Level Trends

Total Count of stocks by industry for October in the YWR Top 300
Monthly trend of the top 5 industries in the YWR 300

Banks: The number of banks in the top 300 continues to grow (which is not what investors were expecting). It’s a combination of European, Turkish and Japanese banks all benefiting from higher interest rates, while loan losses remain minimal.

Utilities: Utilities are the second best scoring sector and nobody is even talking about this. We are in the midst of a global switch to electric powered everything. Maybe utilities benefit.

Autos: still a top sector although slipping (Mazda, Honda, Toyota, Stellantis).

Big cap oil and oil refining have entered the list, kicking out airlines and insurance.

Big cap oil: (Petrobras, Petrochina, CNOOC)

Oil refining: (Marathon, Valero, Phillips 66)

Country Level Trends

Number of stocks in the YWR 300 from top 5 countries
Monthly trend in # of stocks from the top 5 countries.

The US and Japan are still the most highly represented countries in the top 300. Partly this has to do with the greater number of stocks in these markets, but the trend is also stable.

China had a big drop from earlier in the year, but is relatively stable. Chinese energy companies are now making the list.

Taiwan has moved up to #4 with Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Wistron and Eva Airways.

Turkey has been a top 5 country since September.

Boise Cascade?

This monthly data exercise is meant to identify the strongest earnings trends globally, and US home construction is one of those trends.

EPS Estimate trends for Boise Cascade

Boise Cascade is a well run business, but the tailwind is new home construction. We saw this with Doosan Bobcat as well (still scoring well but dropped to #370).

Boise Cascade sells engineered wood products (EWP), but is also a national distributor of building products to stores serving professional contractors (47% of EBITDA). In EWP they keep innovating new wood designs to support higher walls, and open plan designs.

Boise’s P/E is 9x with a 4.6% estimated dividend yield.

A few slides from the August presentation.

Notice the population bulge from 20-35. Prime home buying years.

Full YWR Database and Tableau Charts

See below for links to the full October database of 3,500 global stocks with scores for estimate revisions, valuation and price momentum.

YWR Tableau Dashboard

Additionally, I’ve created a Tableau dashboard to view the industry level data.

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