YWR: Global Inflection Points
We are going to do something different today.
Every month we go over the Global Factor model and identify the top estimate trends.
The problem is often the trends we are surfacing are highly progressed.
Take the YWR Top 25
What do you see?
It’s mostly precious metals and memory (Micron, SK hynix, ADATA).
We know about the precious metal bull market.
The whole world knows about the precious metal bull market.
Same with memory. We’re there.
We’re up to our eyeballs in Korea. Have been since last year.
What’s the new, new?
Sorry, in case you wonder why we focus on estimate revisions so much, and the behavioural reasons behind why they trend, here is my write up on Why Estimate Revisions Work.
Looking for Inflections
This month let’s try something different.
Let’s identify inflection points.
Let’s identify stocks, countries and sectors where estimates have recently inflected, but it’s still early.
What we are looking for is where EPS estimates were falling as of 6 months ago, and are now rising.
Mazda Motor is a perfect example. Something positive started happening to estimates starting 6 months ago. EPS estimates were falling for FY1, FY2 and FY3, but then sharply reversed upwards. Something positive is happening to earnings forecasts, and yet the shares haven’t moved. This is a strong candidate for further work.
We can run this type of analysis across our 10,000 stock universe and look for sector level trends.
Refining is an interesting one. It has great estimate momentum and nobody is talking about it.
For example, if Par Pacific can make $5-7/share it could be interesting.
Another sector which is really interesting is container shipping. Interesting because it screens extremely well on QARV. 45% ROE’s over the last 5 years, no debt, massive earnings growth and super low valuations with a FY1 P/E 7x (YWR QARV Data App).
Nobody cares though because there are so sure shipping will go back to not being profitable, like in the past, and potentially miss the effect from increasing complexity in global shipping lanes (YWR: May QARV)
Look at COSCO Shipping for example… this is so beautiful.
Look at this set up. EPS estimates gradually rising, especially for FY1, but not as much for FY2 and FY3… which is normal because the analysts are being ‘prudently skeptical’… and meanwhile the chart is coiled like a cobra.
Maersk also looks good.
Oh, speaking of China, here is another potential beauty.
MGM China. 6 months of earnings beats and only a minor gain in the shares. This is especially interesting because we own LVS and have been waiting for a Macau inflection point.
Contract Drilling is another.
I could go on, but instead I made a spreadsheet of the Top 3 inflection stocks for the Top 15 industries and Top 15 countries.
A link to the sheet is below.
Month End Data Links
I’ve also added links to all our usual month end Global Factor Model Data.
Oh, there was a reader request that I rerun the Blue Ocean Dashboard for 2,000 stocks (instead of 500) and the same thing for the Rule Breaker Dashboard (2,000 instead of 500). So I did that too.
So you have:
Top 3 inflection stocks for the 15 best ranked inflection sectors and countries.
YWR Global Factor Model Data App (with AI Report Button)
Global Factor Model Rankings Sheet for December 2025
YWR Factor Model Rankings Tableau Dashboard (December 2025)
Rule Breaker Dashboard (upsized to 2,000 US stocks)
Blue Ocean Dashboard (upsized to 2,000 US stocks).
