It’s time again. Time to analyse $3 trillion in equity positions at over 300 hedge funds.
It’s our market intelligence. Which hedge fund strategies are doing well, what do they own, and what do they not own?
A link to the full dataset is at the bottom of the post. The data is also available with our other subscriber datasets at YWR.World
1H 2025 Performance
Hedge funds are doing relatively well. The industry is +5.31% ytd and every strategy is performing, except the CTA’s.
Poor CTA’s. They keep getting whipsawed. CTA’s are -8.1% ytd. They quickly sell on the lows, like in April, and then gradually scale back into the market after retail traders have front-run them. It’s an interesting evolution that we all track their positioning and game their mechanical buying and selling.
But it’s a bit concerning that CTA’s are back 100% long again. Or close to it.
And isn’t it strange that CTA’s and other Quant strategies are struggling so much.
On to positioning.
Top 21 Most Consensus Stocks
This is where we loop through the top 20 equity holdings at over 300 hedge funds managing $3 trillion in equity positions to see which stocks everyone ones and how its changing.
We’ve been doing this every 6 weeks for the last 2 years, so we know the most common hedge fund holdings are the always the big cap tech names. But there are subtle shifts worth noting.
Nvidia is a lot more consensus now. It’s the top holding at 103 funds, where last June just 60 funds had it in their top 20. It’s the #1 market cap company in the world, yet only #4 for the hedge funds. There is still an unease about owning a hardware tech stock. Hedge funds prefer a recurring service model like Microsoft.
The semiconductor allocation continues to take market share. This is our theme that hardware is the new software. Nvidia has the #4 holding, Broadcom is #6, TSMC is #7 and AMD at #16.
Apple and Alphabet are moving down the list. Last year Apple was a #6 holding now its #8.
Roblox has become a top 21 holding and is +124% YTD. We flagged Roblox’s surprising and under appreciated user metrics in January’s Killer Charts along with a link to Mathew Ball’s super comprehensive State of Video Gaming presentation.
Notable that App Lovin ($APP) is a Top 21 stock.
Tesla finally made it into the top 21 at #18. Tesla is notable because it’s a hard one to get past a conventional investment committee.
Which brings up another anomaly. What is the biggest, best performing AI tech stock which isn’t on the list?
Palantir (The Defense of Elysium)
What’s another top performing theme not on the hedge fund list? And probably never will be. Here’s a clue. It is in a massive bull market and has a lot further to go. Gold Miners. Biggest trend and yet ownership of Gold ETF’s and gold miners is non-existant. Hedge funds are too sophisticated to own a gold miner. No top of their class Wharton analyst would ever buy a gold miner. Right? No network effects, no data monetisation strategy, and bad NOPATOIC Ratio. Only a boomer retail investor with food stuck in their beard would buy a gold miner. Which means they keep working.
Big Funds doing the same thing.
What do you do if you are a hedge fund founder who struggled through the tough times and the anxious nights and finally managed to grew your AUM to over $5 billion? The pension funds and consultants have finally accepted you and now you are living large on management fees? You do the smart thing. You play it safe. No more risky bets. You lock it in. Buy the big tech stocks, reduce turnover and do nothing. Let the business compound. Let the sales and marketing people do the work. Sell the name. Sell the brand.
Which is why you find a direct correlation between hedge fund size and how many of our Top 21 Consensus names they own. The bigger the fund the more they are all doing the same thing.
For example, Marshall Wace with $86 billion equity positions is the world leader in consensusness with 14 of their Top 20 positions in the Top 21 list. Statistically, that is hard to achieve unless they are subscribing to YWR and just copying the list each month.
Marshall Wace needs to make sure they don’t get complacent though because Squarepoint with $45 billion in equity positions and 13 consensus positions is nipping at their heels.
On the positive side can I highlight two funds which use to be on this list, but who have reformed themselves? You’ll be surprised. It’s Millennium and Balyasny. Both used to be massively consensus. Top of the list level bad. Now they don’t even make the Top 30 list of shame. Good job. you get a YWR ⭐.
Covalis: Hedge fund of the Month
I have an idea for a theme.
It’s not AI.
It’s not Data Centers.
It’s not companies which make Data Centers.
It’s something different.
I’m not sure if you will like it, but hear me out.
You know how Trump is on the news every day raising tariffs on every country around the world to encourage US manufacturing and to disadvantage foreign exports into the US?
I was thinking… should we be buying US manufacturing companies?
I mean should we be buying the companies which Trump is trying to protect and which have been losing market share for decades to foreign imports? I mean super Apple Pie American manufacturing?
Is having a factory and an existing workforce in the US the new scarce asset?
Should we be buying auto manufacturers, auto parts and tire companies? Anyone with a big US manufacturing footprint. Is that the new gold?
Is that a good idea? Or am I super late and every fund is already doing that?
Well, turns out no. Trump talks about growing US manufacturing every day and is tariffing the crap out of everyone and yet nobody owns these stocks.
Well, one fund in London looks like they might have got the message.
Covalis
Covalis sticks out like a sore thumb because they are one of the only funds in the world to own Ford in their Top 20.
But it’s not just Ford. They also own the US auto parts companies Dana, Visteon, and Aptiv (the old GM spin off Delphi Automotive).
And then they also own the US truck companies Cummins and Oshkosh.
And they own Telecom Italia and BP!!
Going forward US based car, truck and parts companies will have a strategic cost advantage. A complete reversal of the last 4 decades.
Meanwhile, the US auto fleet has aged and is due a replacement cycle.
Having 6 US auto related stocks in their Top 20 makes Covalis the most non-consensus fund in the world and our YWR Fund of the Month.
Below is a link to the August data on the top 20 public equity positions for over 1,000 funds. Note, the data is just the stated equity position and we don't know if there are offsetting convertible bond or options positions.