YWR: Your Weekend Reading

YWR: Your Weekend Reading

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YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Killer Charts
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YWR: Killer Charts

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Erik
Jul 23, 2024
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YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Killer Charts
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There were so many charts this month I split it into 2 presentations.

At the bottom (and in YWR Library) there is a deck for:

  • Killer Charts (42 slides)

  • Coatue’s East Meets West 2024 tech trends presentation (46 slides)

The Coatue presentation is especially good and worth reviewing in depth.

Here are my top 10:

  1. The end of inflation is consensus.

    Chart 27: Net % of FMS investors that think global CPI (in YOY terms) will be higher 
Net % of FMS investors expecting higher inflation 
Net 62% expect global CPI to be lower in 12 
months' time, up 5ppt MoM. 
100 
80 
60 
20 
-20 
-100 
'03 '05 '07 
•—Net % Expecting Higher Global CPI 
'09 
'11 
'13 
'15 
'17 
'19 
'21 
'23 
'25 
Swce; WA 610bd Fund Mamg« Su rVey_ 
BofA RESEARCH
    BofA Fund Manager Survey

  1. Everyone thinks rates are too high and heading lower.

    Chart 3: 39% think that monetary policy Is 'too restrictive' 
% of FMS that think monetary policy is 'too restrictive' 
70 
Marm 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
oc 08 
— % FMS investors say monetary policy 'too restrctive• 
Mar'20 
Monetary policy is too restrictive according to 
39% of investors, the most restrictive since 
Nov'08. 
„ but this in tum deepens the belief that 
global interest rates are set to fall over the 
next 12 months. 
'0001 '06 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '1/ '18 '19 '20 21 22 '23 24 
WA Glob* Su
    BofA Fund Manager Survey

  2. But strangely nobody wants to own the long bond.

BofA Flow Show

  1. And nobody owns the other rate play… real estate.

Chart 11: FMS Investors most underweight real estate since Jan'09 
Net % FMS Overweight Real Estate 
30 
20 
-10 
-20 
Dec'08 
'06 0/ 08 09 '10 '11 
WA Glob* Su 
Estate 
Asset allocators remain OW stocks & UW 
bonds. 
On that note, FMS investors continue to 
reduce allocation to real estate down to net 
29% UW, the lowest allocation since Jan'09. 
• 15 
'19 
'20 
Aug'23 
Jul'24 
22 '23 24
BofA Fund Manager Survey
  1. But the real trade is the AI super cycle. AI earnings grow at 19% through 2026. Rest of the market grows EPS at 6%.

Coatue

6. SaaS is so 2019. Non-AI Unicorns are struggling to raise money

Coatue

7. Tech short interest is non-existent

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