YWR: Killer Charts

40 slides on:

• $4,500 gold

• Xiaomi: the Apple Killer

• Blackstone: how to be a GP not an LP.

• Soggy S&P 500 earnings estimates

• The Rule of 10x and how to make $ in European banks.

As usual, the full Killer Chart pack is at the bottom of the post and in the YWR library.

But let’s hit the highlights.

$4,500 gold:

It’s a top theme and one of the 5 surprises for 2025.

So I love that the World Gold Council ETF flow data shows despite a +50% move in gold to $3,000 oz we’ve only had 1 big month of retail inflows… February.

Gold is making new highs and yet total ETF gold holdings are still below the highs of 2021.

Retail has been selling gold the whole way up.

In the presentation there is also an interesting chart on Central Bank gold buying, which adds to the squeeze.

Do you know what this means?

It tells us we are still early in the trend. The denial phase.

A blow off top is yet to come.

Xiaomi: The Apple Killer (1810 HK)

It’s not a name many investors know, but it should be getting more attention.

Especially, since Xiaomi is eating up global market share in smart phones, tablets, home electronics, and now cars.

Xiaomi is the 3rd largest seller of smartphones globally and growing sales +15%, while Apple and Samsung are in decline.

Xiaomi is also the 5th biggest seller of tablets globally, and growing.

I feel like many investors are living in a bubble.

They don’t spend time outside the US and Western Europe. They don’t go to Africa, the Middle East, or South Asia and see how brands like Xiaomi and Transsion are gobbling up the world markets.

Brands like Apple and Western car companies are getting boxed into a smaller and smaller market.

If the dam breaks and Xiaomi gets momentum in Europe it will do serious damage to Apple.

And Xiaomi is doing what Apple should have done. Make the car.

And sheesh… what a car. Look at the specs on the SU7.

0-100km in 2 seconds. Top speed of 359km/hr.

It’s a Porsche 911 GT3 for $70,000.

You can see the network effects Xiaomi is creating. Make the phone, the tablet, the home appliances and the car and have it all interconnected with their AI system.

We’re losing the ground game.

Blackstone: Be a GP not an LP.

I think if I were a CIO I’d find the Blackstone results annoying.

If I’m in a mix of their funds I’m probably making 7% on an IRR basis (which is an inflated way to measure it, but oh well).

I’m up 7%, but then Blackstone, the GP, is completely creaming it and their earnings are +96%!

Management fees, incentive fees and performance fees up 64%, and then operating leverage.

Do you know what I’d be thinking?

I’d be thinking I’m getting played.

If I’m bullish on PE why be in the funds?

Why not own a basket of KKR, BX, CG and APO?

Stop being an LP and become a GP with much better economics.

But the problem is public stocks like BX can go up and down 30%, and we don’t want that. That’s volatility.

And you also have to be sure about the PE cycle, which personally, I’m not. But if we get a bigger sell-off and want to get bullish on PE maybe buy the GP not the fund. It’s what Mubadala figured out by buying Fortress.

In other PE news, it’s worth noting bankruptcies are rising, but not at alarming levels given the growing size of the industry.

Soggy S&P 500 Earnings estimates

It’s not a crisis, but more a yellow flag that S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2025 are sliding.

From $280/share in July last year we are down to $271.

And the index is still trading at a high forward P/E on an E which is slipping.

But don’t worry.

If the S&P 500 makes you nervous there are always the European banks.

The Rule of 10x and making $ in European Banks.

Europe is suddenly getting a lot of attention and inflows.

But is there more to go?

What happens if investors actually turn ‘Bullish’ on Europe.

If so, there could be more to go in the banks.

For example, what if investors are willing to pay a P/E of 10x for Banco Santander, one of the best global banking franchises in the world?

I mean what if?

I’ll let you decide how crazy things can get, but historically, the FY2 P/E (so 2026) has ranged between, 5x and 12x.

We are currently at 7x.

The 2026 EPS estimate is rising and roughly 90cts.

If it’s not unimaginable for Santander to trade on 10x the 2026 estimate you get EUR 9/share.

That’s another 38%, not including dividends. And by then the market could be looking out to the EUR 1/share EPS in 2027.

In the full chart pack I did the same chart analysis for Unicredit, Barclays, HSBC, BNP, SocGen and Piraeus.

Take a look and consider what might happen if investors get bullish on Europe.