YWR: Killer Charts
It’s your monthly Killer Charts pack (75 slides).
This month Killer Charts covers:
Sentiment
BofA Fund Manager Survey (October)
S&P Earnings Estimate Trends
Private Credit
JP Morgan 2025 Outlook (Private Bank)
Nvidia Presentation
Get your double shot latte this weekend and go over all the charts.
But first I want to share some key slides and the story they tell.
Because I see a new boom in the making.
The backdrop
Markets seem exuberant after Trump's win, but actually sentiment isn’t extreme. Yes, some are bullish, but an equal number are hesitant.
The problem is investors still aren’t sure about the economy.
Investors are gradually getting more positive on the economy in 2025, but they are still skeptical.
Same thing with CPI. Maybe CPI can be a little higher in 2025… but this is coming from record low inflation expectations just 1 month ago.
But what could cause a better than expected economy in 2025?
Another key chart from the BofA survey.
Investors don’t think companies are over leveraged…. record lows in junk bond credit spreads tell us the same thing.
Best Assets for 2025
Their outlook for the ecomomy might be mixed, but investors are much more confident about stock prices.
After a +52% move in the S&P 500 since December 2022 investors think US Stocks will be the best performing asset in 2025. Very little interest in China as usual.
Big investor overweights in US equities and high yield.
US equities earnings estimates show slight deterioration, but still forecasting 15% EPS growth for 2025.
A forward P/E of 22x doesn’t seem like a great starting point for US equities to be the best performing asset in 2025.
In the JP Morgan outlook for 2025 they see a set up where capital markets could be stronger next year with more issuance of leveraged loans, high yield and IPO’s. Should be good for Barclays.
But what picture is this painting?
Are US Equities really going to be the best asset class for 2025?
And how does Nvidia fit into this?
First, one more chart from the JP Morgan 2025 Outlook because it fits with the BofA chart on corporate leverage.