YWR: Your Weekend Reading

YWR: Your Weekend Reading

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YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Killer Charts Pub Quiz
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YWR: Killer Charts Pub Quiz

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Erik
Dec 20, 2024
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YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Your Weekend Reading
YWR: Killer Charts Pub Quiz
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Are you ready for a Killer Charts Pub Quiz

This month’s killer chart presentation is 43 slides covering:

  • BofA Fund Manager survey highlights

  • The Rise of Retail (source Goldman Sachs + Robinhood)

  • S&P 500 Earnings Trends (source FactSet)

  • Mag7 (source Alpine Macro)

A link to the full deck is at the bottom of the post.

Now Pub Quiz time!

I will give you a question based on the slides in Killer Charts as well as a hint.

#1. Which equity market will be the best performing market in 2025?

Hint: Everyone is already overweight, it has been the best performing market for the last 2 years and everyone is max bullish on it.

We know 2025 will be great for US equities, because everyone says so, and is already overweight the US..

Chart 15: US equity allocation surges to record high 
Net % FMS OW US equities 
50 
40 
30 
Aug'01 
20 
10 
0 
-10 
-20 
-30 
-40 
-50 
-60 
Nov'08 
'Net % FMS OW US Equities 
sep 17 
Oct'05 
Dec'24 
Nov'21 
Mar'23 
'23 
Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

According to fund managers the best performing index will be either the NASDAQ or Russell 2000.

#2. Which currency will be the best performing currency in 2025?

Hint: it is expensive, has already done well and everyone is overweight.

#3. Which country will be the biggest positive catalyst for global growth in 2025?

Hint: Everyone expects it to be the biggest driver for global growth, but nobody owns it.

Chart 1 1: Most bullish catalyst for 2025...China growth acceleration 
Which of the following developments would you see as the most bullish in 2025? 
China growth accelerates 
Al productivity gains 
US/Russia/Ukraine peace deal 
US tax cuts 
Fed rate cuts 
EU fiscal stimulus 
o 
Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. 
5 
7% 
10 
13% 
13% 
12% 
15 
20 
25 
30 
35 
40 
Dec-24 
Nov-24 
45 
50

And Chinese financial conditions are stimulative.

#4. Which asset class will be the surprise story of 2025?

Hint: Nobody expects it to do well, yet it determines the valuation of everything.

Nobody expects bonds to do well (yields potentially rise), but at the same time investors are positioned for US equities to put in a 3rd good year (on top of 2 record years) and starting from historically high valuations.

Source: Alpine Macro MAg7 Presentation.

#5 Which sector has the highest upside to analyst price targets, but which investors are underweight.

Hint. It’s not Energy.

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