YWR: New Stevie Features

What are we doing here at YWR?

#1 We invest sensibly with low turnover to compound our portfolios.

#2 We think differently, which helps goal #1.

#3 We have fun.

#4 We build innovative investment tools to help goals #1 and 2.

This fourth point is why we’ve done so much work on how to implement AI in personal investing and investment management. It’s obvious this is the future.

Before getting to what’s new, let’s recap what we’ve built so far:

• Global Factor Model: We built a monthly quantitative screen of estimate revision and valuation scores for 10,000 stocks to surface global estimate trends and find stocks with an attractive combination of estimate momentum and valuation.

• Global Factor Model Dashboard: We created an app on Retool to make the Global Factor Model more user friendly.

• QARV Dashboard: We were worried the Global Factor Model was too focused on estimate momentum so we created a new monthly screen to highlight Quality at a Reasonable Value (QARV). This ranks stocks based on ROE, Earnings consistency, leverage and relative valuation.

• AI Reports: Instead of chatting with AI about a stock and asking the same questions over and over, wouldn’t it be better to build a pre-packaged script which writes a 6 page summary of a stock complete with fundamentals, bull case/bear case and transcript analysis? And wouldn’t it be cool if when you are looking through the Global Factor Model or QARV and saw an interesting stock you could just push a button and run the AI report? Yes, that would be cool. So we built that too.

• Blue Ocean and Rule Breaker Dashboards: We read the book Blue Ocean Strategy and loved it. Then we read Rule Breakers by David Gardner and loved that too. And we wondered if we could use AI to screen thousands of stocks base on the frameworks in the books. Could we screen 2000 stocks on Blue Ocean strategy, Top Doggedness, founder mission and culture? It turns out you can so we built the Blue Ocean Dashboard and the Rule Breaker Dashboard.

• Stevie: We learned about Clawdbots and wondered if we could build our own YWR Clawdbot. Could we host our own AI on Railway equipped with special investing tools (charting, portfolio correlation), and API’s to the FRED economic database and EIA, plus access to the YWR Global Factor and QARV rankings? And could we also give the YWR Clawdbot it’s own read/write database, plus it’s own Google Drive, Google Sheets and Google email so it could build earnings models and send emails? Turns out you can. That was the start of Stevie.

Note: These tools all come with your YWR subscription.

Which brings us to today.

Chatting with Stevie is great, but it’s one way. You come up with a question and the AI answers it. We want to take things to the next level. We want Stevie to use its incredible brain to scan all the daily economic data, earnings revisions, and conference calls. Take in that firehose of data and connect the dots to come up with investing ideas.

Because what do we always want to know?

And we appreciate that Stevie is scanning all these indicators but we would also like Stevie to cut down the noise so hear more about the things we are actually focused on.

So we made some changes to Stevie (www.ywr-intelligence.world/stevie).

New Feature #1: Preferences

Now you can customise what Stevie is watching and what information you receive. Set your subscriptions, enter your 10 focus stocks along with 3 themes you want to track.

Conference call snippets: Every night Stevie reads 10 earnings conference calls and curates interesting snippets from the calls. Previously, these were broadcast daily to both the Telegram (@stevie_ywr_bot) channel and the web based chat. Now click to subscribe if you would like to keep receiving them

New Feature #2: Stevie’s Week Ahead

This is a weekly email of major market moves, useful news articles and alerts for earnings in the week ahead relevant to your 10 focus stocks and 3 themes. Stevie also flags extremities in economic indicators it is tracking. Eventually, we want this to be like Jarvis.

Be aware the extremity alerts are based on a rolling 3 year look back. Yes, I’ve thought about whether to use a 5Y, 10Y or 20Y look back to judge extremities, but it’s challenging. It’s hard to know what to do with the data during the COVID era. I went with 3 years.

New Feature #3: Stevie Ideas

Three times a week Stevie scans its database of estimate revisions, price movement and earnings calls to email you a stock idea. There are three different types of signals and Stevie rotates through the signals so each day you get a different style of idea. The stock ideas are global and not related to your themes or focus stocks.

Think of Stevie’s ideas like that eager beaver young analyst always pushing to get ideas in the book. The ideas might lack judgement, have bad timing, lack context, or misinterpret key data, but every now and then there is a good one. So we keep listening to the analyst’s ideas and appreciate they will get better over time. I also asked Stevie to keep the pitches short and punchy. I want to be able to skim them in under 20 seconds.

Sample idea:

Interesting that Stevie sees what I see in energy stocks.

EOG’s Q2 results in case you want to do more work.

And remember… it’s AI research, not investment advice!

It takes a village: Don’t worry. The new Stevie features are included in your subscription. There is no extra cost. We just want to keep stacking up the value.

But please keep emailing me/texting me feedback on what works, what doesn’t or any glitches you find. It helps me debug everything and get better at building AI research systems. And like always please share ideas on how to make it even better.

Public Service Announcement: I’m going to be in Saudi the week of September 7th. If you are based in Saudi and want to meet up let me know.

Have a good rest of the week and make sure to do lots of fun summery things. It’s August. Before you know it summer will be over and we will be back to wearing puffy jackets every day.

Erik