For the ETF portfolio, I would cut EWY down to 25%; it’s been an epic run. And I would add to China and structure it in three 7-8% buckets of: FXI, KSTR, and ASHR (to get A shares exposure). I would reduce EWY (downside is likely worse if Lula wins) and add silver via SLV or PSLV. If gold is gonna work then silver will really work. And finally, how about some biotech via XBI. Maybe just maybe, healthcare is the real AI winner.
An alternative I chose instead of the TotalEnergies trade—and one that might also be of interest to others—is very long-term call options on SHELL.AS. While you forgo the dividends, I think this is a very efficient way to deploy your capital. I bought the call option with a strike price of €35 and an expiration date of December 20, 2030, for €6.50, and I have another open order at €5—the company’s natural gas division will be of enormous importance to Europe, there’s a robust buyback program through 2030, and the trading business is considered one of the best, if not the best. The stock is already trading very close to the strike price today—the buyback should do its magic by 2030, and then you’ll still have almost a whole year left… That should work out well, if you believe at all that the energy sector is a worthwhile investment.
Erik may I ask if your view on Glen cooled at all? I assume it wasn’t the most tax-efficient sale considering the run? this pullback is tempting me to add
Hi. I didn't really want to sell Glencore, but I got in a 400p in 2023 so the gains were less than for the banks. Yes, I would have preferred to keep it. There are views that met coal prices could start to rise and Glencore is especially sensitive to that. More so than for copper.
For the ETF portfolio, I would cut EWY down to 25%; it’s been an epic run. And I would add to China and structure it in three 7-8% buckets of: FXI, KSTR, and ASHR (to get A shares exposure). I would reduce EWY (downside is likely worse if Lula wins) and add silver via SLV or PSLV. If gold is gonna work then silver will really work. And finally, how about some biotech via XBI. Maybe just maybe, healthcare is the real AI winner.
OK. Thank you for the all the views. It makes sense.
I use Unitedhealth for med sector exposure; seems to be working ...
It has really turned around since the Q1 results. I’ve been wondering if it can be a long-term beneficiary of AI.
An alternative I chose instead of the TotalEnergies trade—and one that might also be of interest to others—is very long-term call options on SHELL.AS. While you forgo the dividends, I think this is a very efficient way to deploy your capital. I bought the call option with a strike price of €35 and an expiration date of December 20, 2030, for €6.50, and I have another open order at €5—the company’s natural gas division will be of enormous importance to Europe, there’s a robust buyback program through 2030, and the trading business is considered one of the best, if not the best. The stock is already trading very close to the strike price today—the buyback should do its magic by 2030, and then you’ll still have almost a whole year left… That should work out well, if you believe at all that the energy sector is a worthwhile investment.
It's another one where the underlying businesses are undervalued.
Yes. I like Shell too.
Hey Eric, can you explain Project Zimbabwe to me in layman terms. I’m new to this game. Thanks
I tried to explain it on this podcast. https://x.com/jackfarley96/status/2072702434091151748?s=46
Erik may I ask if your view on Glen cooled at all? I assume it wasn’t the most tax-efficient sale considering the run? this pullback is tempting me to add
Hi. I didn't really want to sell Glencore, but I got in a 400p in 2023 so the gains were less than for the banks. Yes, I would have preferred to keep it. There are views that met coal prices could start to rise and Glencore is especially sensitive to that. More so than for copper.
Understood. Thank you Erik
Did you buy some of that cheap London real estate? :)
Yes.