YWR: Q3 Performance Review
Disclosure: These are personal views, not investment recommendations to buy or sell a security.
We discuss so many different ideas and themes in these posts it’s good to do a quarterly check of what YWR is actually doing with real money, and whether it’s working.
Dirty Dividends
What’s working: Jackson (A Friday Money Maker), Unicredit (European Banks 1H Earnings Review), Barclays (We need to talk about Barclays), Commerzbank (Not so Boring Commerzbank), Altria, British American Tobacco (Who am I?), Tesla (Tesla @ $550/share).
I’m watching the BATS earnings revisions for a positive inflection point. The valuation really stands out, earnings are growing, and it’s starting to trade better. Add in some positive revision momentum and this could have a nice move.
What’s not working: Glencore, Total, BP, Mercedes, Vinci.
New Positions: Hong Kong Exchanges (388 HK, HKXCY)
Style Drift: Mrs. YWR wants to let you know the style drift is my fault not hers. Tesla and HK Exchanges aren’t classic Dirty Dividend plays. She wanted to add a South Korean pesticide company (002100 KS) with an apparent 7% yield, but I couldn’t find any information on it and our broker doesn’t trade South Korea, so I added HKEX instead. She’s going along with it, but would’ve preferred something dirtier.
Cash Dragons
We started this theme on April 12th with Unleash the Cash Dragons. I picked Tencent (Tencent’s path to HK$ 1,000/share), Alibaba, Baidu (Cash Dragons 1H Earnings Review) and Las Vegas Sands (The China Opportunity According to LVS) for my China plays. The theme’s performance was negative in the 1H Performance Review, but turned around sharply last week.
The earnings models for Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu and LVS are at www.ywr.world.
China FOMO Theme: I didn’t have time to write about it, but when the China news came out last week I quickly added HKEX (388 HK) and Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) to the account with the China portfolio.
I think this China move is going to be stupendous, last into next year, and go further than people realise. So even though they’ve moved I wanted the exchanges too. They aren’t technically Cash Dragons, but I’ll add them to the theme’s performance review for Q4.
Energy:
I’ve been a broken record on Energy (like everyone) and it hasn’t worked, yet, but rather than chase China, maybe this is where we should be adding new money.
Have a good rest of the week.
Erik