Just stop trying to provide intellectual backbone to the Trump administration and mission. There is no grand plan. Just geopolitical vandalism and grift. It is utterly revolting and I miss the old US that I grew up admiring.
Rupert, whatever your personal political preferences, you ought to be able to assess the facts and assign a probability to Erik being correct here. are you going keep saying "no grand plan" irrespective of what happens? what would change your mind? please take this in the nicest way cause i think you might have a blind spot here
I think there is a difficult thing a lot of investors need to do. They need to split their brain in two. One brain thinks how they want the world to be. The other brain thinks how the world is actually developing, even if they don’t like it, and figures out the investment ramifications.
I agree with you, Erik. This is Real politic/offensive realism (John Mearsheimer style).
I am waiting to see Trump come back to his Greenland acquisition/commercial alliance strategy after a successful US-Russia agreement. Denmark won’t feel secured geopolitically post US-Russia agreement and likely be open to a “deal” for Greenland. China would then be taken out of accessing Greenland resources too.
Geopolitics of New Empire is definitely changing existing alliances!
Trump motivations aside, this assumes Putin ultimately will settle for getting more respect from the rest of the world via some sort of deal with the US, however far fetched. However, if Putin is motivated by his desire to make Russia a great power, and is still haunted by the Soviet breakup, then he won’t be able to stop his imperialistic urges and need to look strong at all times. If this is the case it’s only a matter of time before a deal blows up. Also, what you describe sounds a lot like the US pre-invasion relationship with Russia. Even then, the corruption and cronyism in Russia hindered its ability to be an innovative and diversified economy. So what’s holding Russia back isn’t that it is a global pariah, but because it’s run by a dictator who only cares about looking strong and enriching himself and his pals.
I admire the effort Erik :), don't see this as a grand vision of anything other than a transaction that Trump wasn't to win (and finally someone can give him that nobel peace prize 😆).
The world is finally realizing they can not always rely on US, if MAGA moment in US countinious after Trump then it's all countries fending for themselves. Countries that came running for a deal are the ones that currently need US militarily and do heavy US trade, likely outcome would be strategies that get put in place by more countries that reduces this reliance over the next 5-10 years.
Trumps recent transactional bullying behavior against India, a potential major ally in that region against China, is pushing it back and making it rethink how it wants to grow it's trade and military alliances with. Also India does not depend on US militarily and hence no rushing to White House for a deal.
Do agree that rest of the world/markets is where the opportunities exists to make money, but not because everyone has bended the knee, but because everyone is now trading more with one another (leading to more stability) vs relying heavily on US.
Also perhaps this change makes US better fiscally, which I hope occurs, but with reduced influence.
Thank you, I rely on the good and non consensus ideas from YWR! I am still very bullish on gold/gold miner/bitcoin, loved the Ethereum article (picked up BMRN). AI arms race is still very much on and like the picks and shovel providers. Waiting to see if there is a true US boom and rate cuts that lifts small caps valuation going into 2026.
There is a lot in this post with which I disagree. For instance, I think the US has been an empire since 1945. But I also think that China is not aggressive territorially and, for a number of reasons including the ones you lay out, Russia needs a period of peace. The trade I keep thinking about is: what if investors are wrong and defense stocks are not the place to be? Cyberwarfare, drones, etc., sure. But more ships, planes, heavy armour and artillery? In the scenario you envision, is all of this excess defense expenditure really necessary?
And I understand Zelensky has little leverage here, but Ukraine could just choose to keep fighting, even after trump cuts them off for not accepting a deal.
I appreciate your daring to dream of scenarios and risking of pushing buttons. There’s a universe of possible outcomes to assign probabilities to, but first you have to consider them!
Yes, historic meeting, but in negative view. Trump is one more time deluded about peace deal - it is impossible because Putin is not in terested in AI, he wants Ukraine back in Russian empire. And after Alaska meetup he will be emboldened enough to try a Baltic blitzkriege in 2026-27. So, it will be a good mind exercise what are trade opportunities if this happens :)
The Inverse Nixon is very hard to pull off. Trump is also terrible at doing the legwork necessary for implementation - the Trump-Kim summit left Kim with nothing except an even greater feeling of betrayal and executed foreign ministers. Ukraine is also not Trump's to promise so I am unsure what exactly he can bring to the table.
Russia will also know that the US is bipolar with changes in presidencies. If the left takes over, there would be a backlash against Russia due to all the Russian entanglements that Trump has - I really doubt Russia would abandon China for such fickleness even if Trump is a Russian asset.
Just stop trying to provide intellectual backbone to the Trump administration and mission. There is no grand plan. Just geopolitical vandalism and grift. It is utterly revolting and I miss the old US that I grew up admiring.
I’m sorry.
You know me, buddy. I see. I say.
Not having a blind spot would be off brand for a visually challenged rodent. Do I think Trump is a toddler with a Risk board. Sure I do.
If Trump pulls off a Greenland deal it’s insane.
Rupert, whatever your personal political preferences, you ought to be able to assess the facts and assign a probability to Erik being correct here. are you going keep saying "no grand plan" irrespective of what happens? what would change your mind? please take this in the nicest way cause i think you might have a blind spot here
I think there is a difficult thing a lot of investors need to do. They need to split their brain in two. One brain thinks how they want the world to be. The other brain thinks how the world is actually developing, even if they don’t like it, and figures out the investment ramifications.
Respectfully Rupert, we don't need to hear about your Aussie TDS on this one.
Sorry that you don't admire the US anymore, I'm sure it was nice back in the good ole' days.
Thanks for the article Erik, good food for thought as always.
I am neither Australian nor deranged. Respectfully.
I agree with you, Erik. This is Real politic/offensive realism (John Mearsheimer style).
I am waiting to see Trump come back to his Greenland acquisition/commercial alliance strategy after a successful US-Russia agreement. Denmark won’t feel secured geopolitically post US-Russia agreement and likely be open to a “deal” for Greenland. China would then be taken out of accessing Greenland resources too.
Geopolitics of New Empire is definitely changing existing alliances!
Trump motivations aside, this assumes Putin ultimately will settle for getting more respect from the rest of the world via some sort of deal with the US, however far fetched. However, if Putin is motivated by his desire to make Russia a great power, and is still haunted by the Soviet breakup, then he won’t be able to stop his imperialistic urges and need to look strong at all times. If this is the case it’s only a matter of time before a deal blows up. Also, what you describe sounds a lot like the US pre-invasion relationship with Russia. Even then, the corruption and cronyism in Russia hindered its ability to be an innovative and diversified economy. So what’s holding Russia back isn’t that it is a global pariah, but because it’s run by a dictator who only cares about looking strong and enriching himself and his pals.
I admire the effort Erik :), don't see this as a grand vision of anything other than a transaction that Trump wasn't to win (and finally someone can give him that nobel peace prize 😆).
The world is finally realizing they can not always rely on US, if MAGA moment in US countinious after Trump then it's all countries fending for themselves. Countries that came running for a deal are the ones that currently need US militarily and do heavy US trade, likely outcome would be strategies that get put in place by more countries that reduces this reliance over the next 5-10 years.
Trumps recent transactional bullying behavior against India, a potential major ally in that region against China, is pushing it back and making it rethink how it wants to grow it's trade and military alliances with. Also India does not depend on US militarily and hence no rushing to White House for a deal.
Do agree that rest of the world/markets is where the opportunities exists to make money, but not because everyone has bended the knee, but because everyone is now trading more with one another (leading to more stability) vs relying heavily on US.
Also perhaps this change makes US better fiscally, which I hope occurs, but with reduced influence.
What are the big Multiples Cap investment ideas? You’ve been doing really well.
Thank you, I rely on the good and non consensus ideas from YWR! I am still very bullish on gold/gold miner/bitcoin, loved the Ethereum article (picked up BMRN). AI arms race is still very much on and like the picks and shovel providers. Waiting to see if there is a true US boom and rate cuts that lifts small caps valuation going into 2026.
There is a lot in this post with which I disagree. For instance, I think the US has been an empire since 1945. But I also think that China is not aggressive territorially and, for a number of reasons including the ones you lay out, Russia needs a period of peace. The trade I keep thinking about is: what if investors are wrong and defense stocks are not the place to be? Cyberwarfare, drones, etc., sure. But more ships, planes, heavy armour and artillery? In the scenario you envision, is all of this excess defense expenditure really necessary?
I was thinking the same thing. What if the defence trade is overdone?
Just looks too easy and too overcrowded to me. Better opportunities around; completely agree on China/emerging
And I understand Zelensky has little leverage here, but Ukraine could just choose to keep fighting, even after trump cuts them off for not accepting a deal.
Yes. I’ve wondered about that possibility. That Ukraine won’t stop and maybe Europe provides more support. The Ukrainians are amazingly tenacious.
I appreciate your daring to dream of scenarios and risking of pushing buttons. There’s a universe of possible outcomes to assign probabilities to, but first you have to consider them!
Yes, now there is a new scenario for the Monte Carlo simulation.
Yes, historic meeting, but in negative view. Trump is one more time deluded about peace deal - it is impossible because Putin is not in terested in AI, he wants Ukraine back in Russian empire. And after Alaska meetup he will be emboldened enough to try a Baltic blitzkriege in 2026-27. So, it will be a good mind exercise what are trade opportunities if this happens :)
Maybe you are right. Is oil the trade on this? I'm not sure.
Not sure too. Maybe gold. Or long Europe defense. But seems it is already longed by everyone. Let's wait and see + we have nice crypto season :)
The Inverse Nixon is very hard to pull off. Trump is also terrible at doing the legwork necessary for implementation - the Trump-Kim summit left Kim with nothing except an even greater feeling of betrayal and executed foreign ministers. Ukraine is also not Trump's to promise so I am unsure what exactly he can bring to the table.
Russia will also know that the US is bipolar with changes in presidencies. If the left takes over, there would be a backlash against Russia due to all the Russian entanglements that Trump has - I really doubt Russia would abandon China for such fickleness even if Trump is a Russian asset.