Whoah! Don’t disagree that CN equities are a buy, but this Israel led, US followed exercise in the Gulf is not - under any objective analysis- going to plan.
I love your differentiated take, Erik and this is consistent with your recent podcast with Marvin Barth.
Druck said never invest in the present: envision what things are like in 18 months and that’s where securities should trade. And I agree that whenever this is over it will likely be a positive result for the US and Israel. To be sure, it will likely get worse before it gets better and war always brings about the unexpected. That said, a de-fanged Iran and a united ME behind the US (assuming it holds) will be bullish. Keep an eye on the Tel Aviv stock market and the Israeli shekel - they are not panicking and so we should not either. Keep calm and carry on.
Love it. All the usual suspects are hyperventilating (because they don't want to see Israel and/or Trump have a victory) which makes me think things are very much going to plan. The $200 oil is no bueno for domestic policy though
Hi Erik, I heard somewhere that optimists make more money than realists! Great article! Never easy to be optimist with all the war news, you make some good points to be optimistic. Thanks Keong
I know it's boring but what about Barclays Bank? They should earn 50p of EPS in 2026 getting to 65p by 2028. Put it on 11x and you are at 550p. Plus they will pay out 15p of dividends over the next 13 months (the 2026 dividend). The stock has sold off. Maybe now is a good entry point.
I love your optimism and agree with it. How are you playing this? I know you have your cash dragon portfolio which is predominantly Chinese companies. Any other emerging market stocks or etfs?
Are you long oil also? If a portfolio is long US, long international, long gold, long oil, perhaps that is a nice way to hedge the situations of 1) this somehow ends quickly and equities spike and oil pulls back a little or 2) this turns into a major mess and oil hits ATH
Thanks for sharing an optimistic perspective of how things could play out and how to make some money if it does. I really need to hear this to help balance my natural bear mentality. Having said that I’ve derisked considerably and felt it might be a good time to book some gains and sit on the sidelines when we are at all time highs while risks to further downside still exist. I’m especially concerned about impact if oil doesn’t flow through the straits for an extended time.
I love it,Erik!! Your contrarian view makes sense. Definitely a possibility that no one‘s thinking about. Thank you for opening my eyes to different possibilities.
I'm always amazed that we can see things so differently. As far as I can tell, the war is over, US has lost. One fact - the US doesn't seem to control the skies over Iran - as least yet - and I believe Hegseth has admitted - and this is a bit of a disaster. I think Hormuz is closed almost indefinitely, the basic petrodollar deal is bust, and the US will only proceed to bigger blunders. Time will tell. Thank you.
Yes, I know... I'm the opposite of how most people and the news see it. Which is why I thought it would be a helpful to share a different view. We'll see how it goes.
Differentiated viewpoint, Erik. I appreciate that you are always optimistic. What I am struggling with in your analysis is the assumption that China and/or Russia won't step to help out Iran, either covertly or overtly. Both Russia and China have too much to lose geopolitically and economically. My take is that they may not be friends but have too much to lose so may join hands this time
Whoah! Don’t disagree that CN equities are a buy, but this Israel led, US followed exercise in the Gulf is not - under any objective analysis- going to plan.
I know it's a contentious view, but it’s going better than I expected.
😮💨
Totally agree with Squirrel. It is going extremely badly for the US and you can see how stressed Trump is by his tweets
I love your differentiated take, Erik and this is consistent with your recent podcast with Marvin Barth.
Druck said never invest in the present: envision what things are like in 18 months and that’s where securities should trade. And I agree that whenever this is over it will likely be a positive result for the US and Israel. To be sure, it will likely get worse before it gets better and war always brings about the unexpected. That said, a de-fanged Iran and a united ME behind the US (assuming it holds) will be bullish. Keep an eye on the Tel Aviv stock market and the Israeli shekel - they are not panicking and so we should not either. Keep calm and carry on.
Great observation about the Tel Aviv exchange.
Love it. All the usual suspects are hyperventilating (because they don't want to see Israel and/or Trump have a victory) which makes me think things are very much going to plan. The $200 oil is no bueno for domestic policy though
Thank you. I think oil can go up regardless. We are in a commodity bull market and oil has lots of catching up to do.
This is such a crazy take, I'm glad to hear it Erik but it's nuts!!!
I know…..
Hi Erik, I heard somewhere that optimists make more money than realists! Great article! Never easy to be optimist with all the war news, you make some good points to be optimistic. Thanks Keong
It's true. They make more money. It took me a while to figure that out.
Doesn’t look like winning to me
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2029653578151874602
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2029741271560892531
Interesting take and not implausible.
Erik do you have an interesting names in the UK markets that can be potential buys?
I know it's boring but what about Barclays Bank? They should earn 50p of EPS in 2026 getting to 65p by 2028. Put it on 11x and you are at 550p. Plus they will pay out 15p of dividends over the next 13 months (the 2026 dividend). The stock has sold off. Maybe now is a good entry point.
Thank you Erik. I already own it and planning to add to it once it goes below my average price.
But maybe we need another name.
love the bjj references
you make an interesting bull case
I love your optimism and agree with it. How are you playing this? I know you have your cash dragon portfolio which is predominantly Chinese companies. Any other emerging market stocks or etfs?
I’m long everything. Long US, long Korea, long Europe and GLD. I haven’t traded anything.
Are you long oil also? If a portfolio is long US, long international, long gold, long oil, perhaps that is a nice way to hedge the situations of 1) this somehow ends quickly and equities spike and oil pulls back a little or 2) this turns into a major mess and oil hits ATH
Yes. I own BP and Total but the positions haven't been big enough to offset the selloff in everything else.
Thanks for sharing an optimistic perspective of how things could play out and how to make some money if it does. I really need to hear this to help balance my natural bear mentality. Having said that I’ve derisked considerably and felt it might be a good time to book some gains and sit on the sidelines when we are at all time highs while risks to further downside still exist. I’m especially concerned about impact if oil doesn’t flow through the straits for an extended time.
We are all expecting a repeat of the Iraq and Afghanistan sht show.
I love it,Erik!! Your contrarian view makes sense. Definitely a possibility that no one‘s thinking about. Thank you for opening my eyes to different possibilities.
I'm always amazed that we can see things so differently. As far as I can tell, the war is over, US has lost. One fact - the US doesn't seem to control the skies over Iran - as least yet - and I believe Hegseth has admitted - and this is a bit of a disaster. I think Hormuz is closed almost indefinitely, the basic petrodollar deal is bust, and the US will only proceed to bigger blunders. Time will tell. Thank you.
Yes, I know... I'm the opposite of how most people and the news see it. Which is why I thought it would be a helpful to share a different view. We'll see how it goes.
…..if it wouldn’t only be 1pm this would be the perfect bedtime story for me being invested in EM‘s and China with more than 40% of my entire wealth……
Hang in there.
Hhhhmmmm …..than you read this and have to say…..It is so very plausible as well :)
https://zinebriboua.substack.com/p/the-iran-question-is-all-about-china?r=36epi&utm_medium=ios
Differentiated viewpoint, Erik. I appreciate that you are always optimistic. What I am struggling with in your analysis is the assumption that China and/or Russia won't step to help out Iran, either covertly or overtly. Both Russia and China have too much to lose geopolitically and economically. My take is that they may not be friends but have too much to lose so may join hands this time
I think it's just practically hard to do at this point.