Think of how many jobs, new businesses, new products, that were created as a result of computers, the internet, electricity, cars. Was transportation affected by horses being replaced, well yes.
We all need to think bigger and see out 20, 50, 100 years.
mind blow emoji!!! I am thinking not only all AI hardware related stocks are a must in the portfolio but also anything entertainment related (Netflix, Disney, Roblox, Sea Ltd, Tencent,...) - as all the displaced people will want something to do.
The biggest and safest winner I might add. The only problem as always is the valuation but can you imagine they reaccelerate back to 50% growth on the back of AI agents’ traffic, stock would be a decent buy under such scenario.
Yes, it’s a dynamic and fast moving space but Cloudflare has most diversified and physical (CDNs) exposure. That’s why I think is the safest option among the cybersecurity plays.
I have just imagined a, not confined by anything, Clawdbot that has been compromised and or silently goes rogue. This must be resolved before serious adoption.
Great article and yeah a bit scary…. I may have missed it because of all the enthusiasm's around the AI / Data Center picks and shovels but if this all become true, doesn’t it make sense to buy into all these people factories like Accenture and so on? We should run a screen on companies that have the lowest revenue per employee and that have the highest chance to benefit from all these clawdbot juniors. Their margins should ramp up significantly
I was kind of wondering the same thing. Or do the cost savings get passed on and margins don't improve. But yes, it's a good idea. Find companies with the most people.
Short run yeah we could see unemployment rise but longer term I think a ton of new jobs we've never even thought of get created. This is the pattern throughout human history (The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley explains this really well) so I'd be really surprised if this time is truly different!
Hi Erik, loved this piece on how raw your reaction was, totally unfiltered and amazing.
I’ll check out Clawdbot.
A question - I’ve been long tech via the
usual mag 7 and MU but missed the rally in broader chip stocks. You touched on this in this article - where would you suggest I start digging? Looking for 2-3 names only pls. Thanks.🙏
Hi Udit. Probably stick with memory. Do you own Nvidia? I own SK Hynix and Nvidia and will do work on TSMC and ASML. I also own Samsung indirectly through the Korea ETF. But maybe focus on Nvidia first.
Fascinating as always. One thing that seems missing here and elsewhere in discussions of AI job displacement and stocks continuing to climb are the political implications. Trump's approval ratings are starting to look like second term George W. Bush and his agenda is not moving the needle at all for the younger minority voters who put him over the top in 2024. Start listening to what AOC is saying about AI, she's super critical but also predicting these major disruptive changes. If all this happens, her views will resonate more and she will seem like a prophet, especially if what you forecast here plays out. If any of this unemployment happens on top of Trump's deep unpopularity, I think Democrats dominate the mid-terms and again in 2028. If that many people lose their jobs under this administration which is completely embracing AI with few guardrails, that's political disaster IMO. tax rates can and will go way higher for individuals and especially corporations. Do stocks really just rally if we get or move toward a President AOC?
did anyone actually try to install this ClawdBot? I've been working on it all day on a clean extra computer and it is not working. Basically, AI is guiding me how to un-install and reinstall various nodes, drivers, modules, directories... Over and over... Are they just messing with me?
Apparently I've completed the install. GPT says I've updated the powershell as well as the js node, fixed the npm, done a PATH repair, and also resolved a missing Git. If you had ever heard of these things, then you know more than me. Which I assume is the case.
OK. It runs Node. The installation is more involved than people say on X. Can you let us know how it goes. Make sure to set up the WhatsApp integration.
Think of how many jobs, new businesses, new products, that were created as a result of computers, the internet, electricity, cars. Was transportation affected by horses being replaced, well yes.
We all need to think bigger and see out 20, 50, 100 years.
Good weekend all!
R
Thank you for keeping us positive.
I hope you go skiing Erik, the Spanish Pyrenees sound incredible and new snow, hell yeah. Chasing corn snow in Tahoe while your article sets in. Yikes
You are bringing back great Tahoe memories.
mind blow emoji!!! I am thinking not only all AI hardware related stocks are a must in the portfolio but also anything entertainment related (Netflix, Disney, Roblox, Sea Ltd, Tencent,...) - as all the displaced people will want something to do.
I didn't go into it, but I think AI cyber security will get a huge tailwind from this too.
I think Cloudflare is the biggest winner.
The biggest and safest winner I might add. The only problem as always is the valuation but can you imagine they reaccelerate back to 50% growth on the back of AI agents’ traffic, stock would be a decent buy under such scenario.
Yes, that's what I'm thinking. They might grow into the valuation quite quickly. I don't know the companies well though.
Yes, it’s a dynamic and fast moving space but Cloudflare has most diversified and physical (CDNs) exposure. That’s why I think is the safest option among the cybersecurity plays.
I have just imagined a, not confined by anything, Clawdbot that has been compromised and or silently goes rogue. This must be resolved before serious adoption.
Great article and yeah a bit scary…. I may have missed it because of all the enthusiasm's around the AI / Data Center picks and shovels but if this all become true, doesn’t it make sense to buy into all these people factories like Accenture and so on? We should run a screen on companies that have the lowest revenue per employee and that have the highest chance to benefit from all these clawdbot juniors. Their margins should ramp up significantly
I was kind of wondering the same thing. Or do the cost savings get passed on and margins don't improve. But yes, it's a good idea. Find companies with the most people.
Short run yeah we could see unemployment rise but longer term I think a ton of new jobs we've never even thought of get created. This is the pattern throughout human history (The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley explains this really well) so I'd be really surprised if this time is truly different!
Yes. Maybe that holds true even though it it’s hard to see right now.
Fantastic article, Erik! This is massively bullish for cybersecurity and the US 2-yr bonds.
Probably the most depressing thing I've read in a long time.
wow ! thanks for this Erik. an important post. were you walking the London streets like Charles Dickens ?
Is that what Dickens did during the Industrial Revolution?
yes. they walked everywhere and it’s good for ideas and composition it seems ;)
Hilarious
The always skeptical FT is nothing if not consistent here (https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/4db4b852-c514-4fe6-ad32-c5fbe41b6ff2) but Karpathy's caution is worthwhile.
Hi Erik, loved this piece on how raw your reaction was, totally unfiltered and amazing.
I’ll check out Clawdbot.
A question - I’ve been long tech via the
usual mag 7 and MU but missed the rally in broader chip stocks. You touched on this in this article - where would you suggest I start digging? Looking for 2-3 names only pls. Thanks.🙏
Hi Udit. Probably stick with memory. Do you own Nvidia? I own SK Hynix and Nvidia and will do work on TSMC and ASML. I also own Samsung indirectly through the Korea ETF. But maybe focus on Nvidia first.
It is like Jarvis (Tony Stark's AI assistant) in the Iron Man movie.
Yes. Exactly.
Fascinating as always. One thing that seems missing here and elsewhere in discussions of AI job displacement and stocks continuing to climb are the political implications. Trump's approval ratings are starting to look like second term George W. Bush and his agenda is not moving the needle at all for the younger minority voters who put him over the top in 2024. Start listening to what AOC is saying about AI, she's super critical but also predicting these major disruptive changes. If all this happens, her views will resonate more and she will seem like a prophet, especially if what you forecast here plays out. If any of this unemployment happens on top of Trump's deep unpopularity, I think Democrats dominate the mid-terms and again in 2028. If that many people lose their jobs under this administration which is completely embracing AI with few guardrails, that's political disaster IMO. tax rates can and will go way higher for individuals and especially corporations. Do stocks really just rally if we get or move toward a President AOC?
did anyone actually try to install this ClawdBot? I've been working on it all day on a clean extra computer and it is not working. Basically, AI is guiding me how to un-install and reinstall various nodes, drivers, modules, directories... Over and over... Are they just messing with me?
Can you blaze the trail for us?
Apparently I've completed the install. GPT says I've updated the powershell as well as the js node, fixed the npm, done a PATH repair, and also resolved a missing Git. If you had ever heard of these things, then you know more than me. Which I assume is the case.
OK. It runs Node. The installation is more involved than people say on X. Can you let us know how it goes. Make sure to set up the WhatsApp integration.
i got it to work. it's cool. still tinkering with it.
I started the install process as well, although I have a ways to go. Can you post a link to the install instructions you used?
I haven’t tried it yet.