YWR: World Boom Ahead!
So many armchair economists.
And amazing how quickly they change their view.
Back in January the outlook for the economy was great.
3 months later worst outlook on record.
These ‘economists’ should probably get another job.
Because they’re getting it wrong again.
$ weakness is the best thing ever for the rest of the world.
A World Boom is unfolding.
This month’s Killer Charts presentation is 45 slides on:
Sentiment
S&P 500 Earnings
US Housing
US Economy
US Economy as seen through Eaton
EM Fixed Income Boom
Chinese Economy
The full chart deck is at the bottom of the post, but lets hit some highlights.
Top Charts
Getting negative at VIX > 40 isn’t a great way to make money.
S&P 500 estimates for 2025 have slid 4%, but it’s mostly Energy. Other sectors are in line or beating.
US consumers are always collapsing… except when they aren’t, and are getting above inflation wage increases. >4%
Don’t tell the YouTubers running around Florida with their selfie sticks, but US Housing is a Sellers market. I get why it isn’t as much fun to film a lack of inventory in Connecticut in the winter.
Zillow Data Yes, it’s a delicate balance, but if workers keep getting 4% wage growth, and there are no sudden spikes in interest rates, it slightly eases the housing affordability stress.
And don’t tell the armchair Economists, but $154 billion in new Mega Industrial Projects were announced in Q4 (+40% yoy)! 2025 is on track to be a record year for new project starts. #NotTheGreatDepression.
The EM Fixed Income Boom has started. 2.7 billion consumers experiencing lower rates => what happens? Chinese 10yrs below 2% and the India 5yr is below 6%. We are in the early stages of an EM local currency Fixed Income Boom led by US$ weakness. China and India are leading, but look for Brazil and Mexico to follow. The result, which we will see towards the end of 2025, is a pick up in EM economic activity from stable currencies and lower local rates. #GotEmLocalCurrencyDebt
And as expected…..China’s Economy is Crashing……. UPWARDS.
Why is this surprising? China already had their GFC (2022-2024) and are stimulating like crazy. And the tariffs… how many new US factories are going spring up in the next 2 years to make consumer electronics? None. We will still buy everything from China, pay more for it, and demand higher wages.
So don’t be like everyone else waiting for the next Great Depression.
#GetOnOffence
#FocusOnYourOpportunitiesNotYourProblems
Below is the link to the full Killer Charts Presentation for April (45 slides). Also available in the YWR Library