YWR: Global Factor Model
It’s time to dig into the global data trends.
We always find something interesting, and this month is no exception.
Let’s start with the Top 40.
Top 40 YWR Ranked Stocks Globally
Lots of Turkey, as usual.
Shipping continues to do well as the Houthis create unexpected tightness in shipping capacity.
Companie Sud Americana de Vapores
COSCO
Wan Hai
Yang Ming
HD Korea Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering
Maersk estimates are also rising.
Conference call with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerk:
Today, all ships that can sail and all ships that were previously not well utilised in other parts of the world have been redeployed to try to plug holes. It has alleviated part of the problem, but far from all the problem across the industry, including for Maersk. We are going to have in the coming month missing positions or ships that are sailing that are significant different size from what we normally would have on that string, which will also imply reduced ability for us to carry all the demand that there is.
SK Hynix: the Nvidia of memory chips for AI
Anglogold Ashanti : the gold mining turn around.
Kawasaki Heavy………this is interesting…..
Kawasaki Heavy is into what could be massive trends over the next 10 years. I’m putting their Vision 2030 presentation in the library, but here are a few slides to get you interested.
We are early in the growth of Japanese defence spending. .
A key takeaway from Kawasaki Heavy’s presentation is that Japan is moving ahead on a hydrogen supply chain. This is important. The Japanese have done the numbers and renewables in Japan are expensive. They are happy to import renewable energy via hydrogen to Japan. Toyota is also going ahead with hydrogen.
If large Japanese industrials are in agreement to move ahead on hydrogen this could be a big opportunity with multiple ways to play it. There are a lot of slides on hydrogen in the presentation.
Kawasaki’s 2030 net profit target is > 300bn yen (10% profit margin on 3trn in revenues). 300bn yen is $2bn in net profit for a company with a current market cap of $5.9bn. So if they plan works out it’s a multi-year home run.
And here is a link to the viral commercial for Kawasaki Ridge. ‘Business up front, party in the back.’
Industry Trends
Banks are still the top sector. We saw better than expected 1H results out of Santander and Unicredit last week.
Precious metals is the number 2 rated sector globally and no hedge funds own it.
Semiconductors are still at top 5 sector.
Monthly industry trends
Country level trends
China is back to #2, but still a top 5.
Then it’s the New Europe… Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Looking at the Kawasaki Heavy presentation and realising the trends in building a hydrogen supply chain, defence spending, robotics and aerospace you can see why these Asian countries with lots of high tech industry could do really well.
Japan might be in a multi-year bull market and it’s not about the yen.
There is no France, Germany, Italy or UK….
Below is the source data:
Full rankings data for July, 2024
Link to the July 2024 Tableau data visualisation dashboard
Kawasaki Heavy Presentation
Public service announcement: I added an extra ‘Data’ tab with estimate revision data for each of the stocks. Some readers said this data is hard to find.