YWR: Killer Boom Charts
You see it. Right?
There’s a transition unfolding.
New things are working.
It’s the global boom.
Let’s get into this month’s Killer Charts.
This month’s deck runs 46 slides with sections on:
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates
Breakout Charts
Oil Charts
IMF World Boom Projections
The Potential Chemical Sector Inflection
Gold Positioning
Light for Active Managers
The US Economy is a Coiled Spring
A link to the full deck is at the bottom of the post.
But first… the thing on everyone’s mind.
Yes, it goes higher.
CFTC positioning is middle of the range and ETF flows are high, but not extreme given what’s unfolding, especially if you strip out Asian flows.
And hedge fund positioning in gold miners… don’t get me started.
While others might be hedging and calling for ‘wave 4’ we think it goes vertical from here.
And it is.
Now on to the Boom.
The Boom is unfolding across defence, critical metals, semiconductors, infrastructure and energy, which is why it’s showing up in the GDP data, but many fail to see it. It’s not booming in the traditional sectors like housing, autos and consumer. Not yet.
7 Top Boom Charts from the Deck.
#1 Have you appreciated the explosion in S&P 500 earnings? We are looking at +15% EPS growth in ‘26 and ‘27. That’s an acceleration from the 7.5%/yr average since 2000.
Think ahead to where we will be in late ‘27… it’s likely we will be looking ahead to a ‘28 EPS of $393/share. Put that on 25x and we get S&P 10,000. Yes, that crazy target people tell me I should stop talking about.
And if you think the P/E’s can’t expand further, take a moment to consider your assumption that companies maximise profits (Stop Caring about Earnings).
#2 IMF Raising Growth Outlook on Everything.
I don’t usually care what the IMF thinks about anything, but it’s interesting to watch their GDP growth estimates get dragged upwards for every region of the world. It’s also useful to be on top of this because mega funds use these outlooks for their asset allocation decisions.
In the IMF outlook Europe now grows at 1.4% for the medium term, which is a big change from 0.8% in 2025.
Asia grows at 5%, Middle East at 4%, Africa 4% while the US is healthy at 2%.
It’s a stable set-up for money to move to the periphery.
#3 Nobody is Talking about South Africa (or Korea).
I’m not saying buy South Africa here, but just that it’s good there are massive bull markets like South Africa exploding into the sky, which investors in Mag7 are missing.
We need these charts. It starts the FOMO. You want investors looking around anxious that they are going to miss the next South Africa. It shakes things up and gets money on the move.
#4 Chemicals Inflection
H/T to YWR readers flagging this in the chat.
I’m not sure I want to buy chemical stocks (I’m already max long), but the fact this super hated, super cyclical sector is turning up is another sign the tendrils of the Global Boom are spreading into even the most hated parts of the market.
On the product side Methanol might have stabilised but polyethylene is still causing pain.
Here is the data analysis we did on other inflection sectors. Refining really stands out (Global Inflection Points).
#5 The most important chart in the world.
Gold, silver, platinum..all working. Copper working..aluminum… nickel working… potentially chemicals waking up.. IMF revising up growth globally….
It all makes this the most important chart in the world.
If oil wakes up it unlocks markets like Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Nigeria. They become the new hot thing. The next South Africa.
#6 But the consumer…….
The K-economy… the consumer isn’t feeling good… the housing market is soggy… restaurants….
Turns out that is all positive too. When consumer sentiment is this bad, it’s usually positive for S&P 500 returns over the next 12 months.
Maybe a consumer recovery is the next leg in our boom. I mean wouldn’t it mess with everyone’s mind if we should be buying US consumer and housing stocks here?
#7 My favorite market for a breakout.
I’m sorry, but this chart looks insane.
Coiled and ready to go.
It’s a set-up 16 years in the making, which means the move is going to be BIG. And there is so much money which can go into it.
I especially love it because I’ve been buying it for 2 years in anticipation (YWR Portfolios). Plus we made it 20% in our 2026 Asset Allocation.
We’re all in. Locked and loaded.
