YWR: Killer Charts
Let’s get you set up for 2026 with our final chart pack of the year.
47 slides on:
S&P 500 earnings estimates
BoF Fund Manager survey highlights
US market charts
China’s Export Machine
Institutionalizing Crypto
Here are my top 5 takeaways:
#1 S&P 500 earnings look fine. We came through Q3 and are still getting earnings estimate upgrades with 15% EPS growth projected for 2026. That’s a great combo. We should be able to hit $7,500 on the S&P 500 in 2026.
There is more detail in the presentation slides.
#2. 20x is the new 17x. It makes sense that if 40% of the S&P 500 is tech companies the index can trade on a P/E of over 20x. Maybe even 30x.
#3 US Economic growth surprises in 2026. Look at the BofA chart of investor positioning in cyclicals & commodities. Plus, look at the chart of investors complaining that companies are over investing. It makes me think Goldman is likely correct that US GDP growth surprises in 2026. Meanwhile, the Fed will be cutting.
#4 Chinese Exports will continue to Boom. And the stock market too.
No wonder Chinese exports are hitting records. The RMB is at a record undervaluation versus the US$ and EUR. This is a tough spot for European competitiveness, but great for China. Meanwhile, with the Chinese property market still weak, interest rates low, and bank deposits through the roof, the stock market should continue to do well in 2026.
I put Goldman’s top China charts in the slide deck, but I especially liked these two charts.
Cheap currency and tons of liquidity.
#5. 2025 was the year institutions accepted crypto. This is a major financial infrastructure inflection point. Many things will change going forward. We need to be on top of this.
I put a whole section on crypto in the presentation to get us up to speed. We will go into this more in New, New Pt. 2
A link to the full 47 slide Killer Charts presentation is below.
Oh wait…
#6 Bonus Takeaway. Guess which sector was the worst performing sector in 2025 and also the most underweight by investors going into 2026?
Hint: YWR readers voted it their most favorite sector in our asset allocation survey.
